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The High-Stakes Moment for the Commodities Business

Monday, January 5, 2026

The outlook for commodities such as coal, nickel, and palm oil in 2026 is bleak, an alarm for small players.

arsip tempo : 177308133251.

A tugboat pulls a barge along the Barito River in Kalahien, Buntok, Central Kalimantan, May 8, 2025. Tempo/Tony Hartawan. tempo : 177308133251.

ENTERING 2026, Indonesia’s commodity market sits at a critical juncture. Price weakness caused by slowing global demand makes coal, nickel, and crude palm oil (CPO) far less attractive. The government has rolled out interventionist policies, but their effectiveness remains in question.

The World Bank estimates that thermal coal prices fall to around US$95 to US$100 per ton, approaching a new equilibrium, but still far removed from the

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