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Squeezed on Three Fronts, With No Clear Exit

Monday, April 6, 2026

Trade surplus has already been shrinking even before the shock arrives. Indonesia is now squeezed on three fronts—with no clear way out.

arsip tempo : 177880000778.

Illustration: Tempo/Gatot Pandego. tempo : 177880000778.

Another early warning alarm is sounding—loudly. Indonesia’s trade surplus in the first two months of 2026 has fallen sharply. Data from the Central Bureau of Statistics show a surplus of just US$2.23 billion, roughly a third of the US$6.6 billion recorded in the same period last year.

Such a steep contraction is troubling in itself. More concerning is the timing. The deterioration occurred before the outbreak of war, when global

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