Betting on the Margin of Error

April 14, 2009

ALI Mochtar Ngabalin, a Crescent Star Party chairman, deftly punched out numbers on his cellphone. One by one, he called up the many politicians he knew. It seems that he wanted to share his dissatisfaction: the quick count election results broadcast on television on Thursday last week presented some alarming information. His party only won about 1 percent of the votes.

This was indeed the case, even though the target they had set was not unrea

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