FOR the past two weeks, speculations have been rife about the price of oil. A series of reasons, fundamental or non-fundamental, fuelled the oil price up to US$50 per barrel (see From Najaf to New York). Two weeks ago, the price of crude oil on the New York market closed at around US$47.53 per barrel. In London, there was only a slight price difference, around US$43.33.

Compared to the assumption set in the State Budget (APBN) 2004, the stratosph