Oversized Prabowo's Cabinet

NOT many remember that back in 1988 to 1993, President Suharto once formed a cabinet with 41 ministers. Now, 36 years later, Prabowo Subianto, who was once Suharto’s son-in-law, is likely to form a cabinet with approximately the same number of ministers. It could be that “a government made-up of the best people without any consideration of ethnicity, religion, race or background,” as Prabowo promised during his campaign, will instead be characterized by the politics of accommodation.

The door to the establishment of a cabinet that is gemoy or oversized—the term used during the campaign to personify Prabowo—has been opened by the House of Representatives, which quickly approved a revision to the State Ministers Law. Under the new provisions, the president is free to determine the number of members in his or her cabinet. The changes were debated rapidly to allow Prabowo to carry out his plan to increase the number of ministers. Under the previous law, the cabinet was limited to a maximum of 34 members.

If this goes ahead, Prabowo will lead the largest cabinet since the start of the Reformasi era. The cabinets of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and President Joko Widodo had only 34 ministers. Even President Bacharuddin Jusuf Habibie, who replaced Suharto, only appointed 38 ministers. Very large cabinets were only seen during the Guided Democracy era, especially between 1962 and 1966, with the number of ministers peaking at 132 between February 24 and March 28, 1966.

Several members of the coalition claim that an increase in the number of ministers is necessary to ensure that the Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka administration can keep its campaign promises. Those close to Prabowo also claim that the cabinet will have many professionals, meaning it will be known as a cabinet of experts. However, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the increase in the size of Prabowo's cabinet is intended to accommodate representatives from supporting parties and groups.

Prabowo and Gibran were backed by the Gerindra Party, the Golkar Party, the Democrat Party and another member of small parties, such as the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI). After they won the presidential election, they were joined by the NasDem Party, the National Awakening Party (PKB), and the Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS), which had supported the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pairing. And Prabowo might also try to include the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P). It is not possible that this composition will not be reflected in the allocation of ministerial posts.

Moreover, the need for political accommodation will also be reflected in the non-ministerial bodies that are to be formed. These include the National Nutrition Council, the National Agency for the Mitigation of Climate Change and Carbon Trading, as well as the State Revenues Agency. There will be a total of 21 new bodies. It is easy to imagine that the new government will be fat and will have many branches. As well as requiring additional funding, this bulky cabinet and all these new bodies will even have a risk of slowing down the bureaucracy.

Experience shows that changes to the composition of a cabinet lead to new ministers not being able to immediately take action. New organizations need time to consolidate, including appointing officials and transferring staff. Aside from the technical issues, there are many programs that should be sustainable and that require stable structures to achieve long-term targets, for example, the Sustainable Development Goals.

Nevertheless, from the budgetary aspect, an oversized cabinet will be an additional burden on state finances. The Finance Ministry has already adjusted funding in order to cover the costs of these new ministries. Despite this, it is important to realize that Prabowo has limited room for fiscal maneuver, especially with the substantial debt that falls due for payment next year.