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Short-term populist economic policies are increasingly dominating the world. One is protectionism. In his first days in office, US President Donald Trump immediately pulled his country out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Trump also invited Mexico and Canada to meet and reassess the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
Indeed, protectionism benefits firms that enjoy the protection. But in the long run, inefficiencies and hidden costs will emerge, and that will rot the economy from the inside out. This is the danger that has economists and analysts around the world wringing their hands.
As we enter 2017, the government has been busy seeking ways to stabilize the rupiah. With the Federal Reserve raising US dollar interest rates late last year, other world currencies, including the rupiah, have weakened. Our currency, which in the third quarter of last year averaged about Rp13,100 per US dollar, closed the year at Rp13,400. Unfortunately, the rupiah will continue to face pressure, given the Fed's plan to further raise interest rates this year.
It is no surprise that the government recently allowed mining companies to export their mineral ores. This is to increase exports and foreign exchange earnings, to help stabilize the rupiah. Previously, the government banned mineral exports to encourage mining companies to go up the value chain and build the smelter production phase. Under the new arrangement, 70 percent of ore production is allowed for exports, while the remaining is required to be sold to local smelter companies. Currently, there are about 30 plus local smelter facilities, some in various phases of construction, a few already completed.
Brexit forced economists to redo their projections for 2017. And, rightly so, as not long after the United Kingdom (UK) decided to leave the European Union (EU), its currency slumped to its lowest level in many years. The concern is that this nationalistic, anti-trade and anti-migration sentiment is gaining followers in other EU countries, which raises uncertainty over the future of the EU and its euro currency, especially with the upcoming elections in France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.
Forecasting became tougher when Donald Trump won the United States (US) general election. Although it's still uncertain what exactly his economic policies would look like, he did campaign to limit the flow of trade and migration, in particular, trade between China and the US and the flow of migrants between Mexico and the US, which could disrupt world trade.
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