Prabowo's Foreign Policy

Dubbed “the foreign policy president” by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono for his supposed geopolitical savvy, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has stumbled over several foreign policy decisions. His approach of trying to please everyone, coupled with the selection of a foreign minister with little experience, has made the new government’s diplomacy seem directionless.

One of the policies that has sparked controversy is Prabowo's stance on the South China Sea conflict. In a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on November 9, 2024, Prabowo suggested a solution to resolve the dispute through cooperation in overlapping areas. This approach is contrary to Indonesia's consistent stance in supporting international law, especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

Prabowo's stance is akin to acknowledging China's claim to the nine-dash line that covers most of the South China Sea. This claim has long been a source of tension between China and Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines. Criticism has poured in, both from within the country and from regional neighbors, who see Indonesia as undermining its position as a neutral country that supports the rule of law.

Ironically, just three days later, when meeting US President Joe Biden in Washington, DC, Prabowo issued a different statement. This time, he reaffirmed his support for UNCLOS, as if retracting his previous statement. This position change raised a big question: does Prabowo understand the geopolitical complexity of the South China Sea or is he simply playing the role of “superman” to gain a good image in the eyes of all parties?

Another blunder occurred in the policy of transferring drug convicts to their home countries, including sending Mary Jane Veloso back to the Philippines. This policy was carried out without a clear legal basis. Although his intention reflected concern for humanitarian issues—something different from President Joko Widodo's policy, which tended to support the death penalty—Prabowo's move was quite reckless. Indonesia still does not have any law regulating the transfer of prisoners between countries.

The absence of such a regulation was the reason Indonesia rejected Australia’s earlier request to repatriate Schapelle Corby in 2005. By opening the door to such a move, such as in the Mary Jane case, Prabowo risks giving the impression that Indonesia is easy to lobby. Now other countries, such as Iran, have begun making similar requests. This raises a dilemma: what will happen to Indonesian citizens who are on death row abroad?

The problem was compounded by the appointment of Sugiono as Foreign Minister. Many question his capabilities compared to more experienced career diplomats. Indonesia's foreign policy seems to be in limbo and directionless under Sugiono.

If this pattern continues, Prabowo risks making Indonesia lose credibility in the eyes of the world. The desire to please all parties without understanding the art of diplomacy will only make Indonesia a toothless Asian tiger, capable only of rhetoric.