When the global market is in a rout, Indonesia’s Achilles heel lies in its government bonds market. The hardest shocks potentially start here. Foreign investor’s move to sell their Indonesian government bonds—“flight to safety” move—is the trigger.

The resolution of the government to put the brakes on 2022’s budget deficit brings relief to the market.

Inflation in the US, which might trigger an interest rate hike by the Fed and reduced liquidity injection, is becoming the biggest fear of emerging markets, including Indonesia. Investor’s money which has been anchored here might just return home, in great numbers and fast.